On January 20, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, taking government action from his first day in office.
From the first day of his second term as president of the United States (U.S.), Donald Trump issued executive orders that will have implications for Mexico and the world, explained specialists from Tec de Monterrey.
During his swearing in ceremony, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to meeting his campaign promises on topics such as immigration, security, geopolitics, economics, and climate action, to name but a few.
By way of example, he designated cartels terrorist organizations, declared an emergency on the southern border along with sending troops, and threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on Mexico, among other actions.
Gabriela de la Paz, Mariana Rangel, Iliana Rodríguez Santibáñez, Gabriela Siller, and José Antonio Ballesterosshared their analysis of Trump’s actions with CONECTA.
Trump’s political agenda
For Professor Gabriela de la Paz from the School of Social Sciences and Government, Trump’s second term is framed by the aim to continue policies from his first term, while taking retaliatory measures.
“In his second term, Trump is going to retaliate against the people who’ve been against him for the past four years,” remarked De la Paz.
“His second term is one of imposition; that’s what the next four years will be about,” she said.
This narrative was identified as part of the Republican’s inaugural speech when highlighting the priority of his agenda was acting on areas of “national emergency” such as immigration, the cartels, and the domestic economy.
De la Paz believed it was essential to separate the president’s public declarations from legislative processes that involve further discussion.
“It remains to be seen whether Trump is going to be able to pass all the laws he wants,” shared the professor, adding that some measures taken by his predecessor Joe Biden that will not be so easy to roll back, despite his majority in Congress.
“You could say a lot about Donald Trump’s inaugural speech (...) For now, Mexico appears to be one of the important protagonists,” said Beata Wojna, a professor from Santa Fe campus, on social network X.
“In his second term, Trump is going to retaliate against the people who’ve been against him for the past four years,” remarked De la Paz.
What are the implications of Trump’s executive orders?
On his first day in office, Trump signed dozens of executive orders, the most notable of which were:
- Designation of cartels as terrorist organizations
- Declaring an emergency on the southern border and sending troops to the zone
- Hardening requirements for asylum seekers
- Declaring a national energy emergency
- Changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America
- Decreeing an America First trade policy
- Leaving the Paris Agreement, which combats climate change
- Leaving the World Health Organization
- Pardoning the participants in the Capitol attack of January 6, 2021
- Ordering a return to binary and biological definition of sex (male or female)
-Border security
Gabriela Siller, Economic Analysis Director at BASE Financial Group and professor of economics at the Tec, said that the designation of drug cartels as terrorist organizations could, at first, seem “positive.”
However, the Tec graduate indicated that in practice this decision would imply that Mexico could be subject to sanctions or that the U.S. army could enter Mexico without permission, thus causing a diplomatic crisis.
Linking this with the immigration measures, Iliana Rodríguez Santibáñez, a Tec professor and specialist in international law, said that this categorization could mean an intensification of security and surveillance measures in the border zone.
“The designation of cartels as terrorists will discourage and drive away investment, with severe impacts on industry and unemployment. Internal investment in the government itself by economic stakeholders in our territory could also be affected,” she remarked.
-Immigration and mass deportations
Trump ordered an immediate stop on all undocumented entries to the country while increasing the number of deportations.
The president ended the policy of requesting asylum on the Mexican border by canceling asylum seekers’ electronic appointments and ordering the deployment of 1,500 troops along the border.
Trump restored the “Remain in Mexico” policy that obliges immigrants and asylum seekers on the southern border to wait in Mexico until the date of their hearings in the U.S. immigration courts.
Although De la Paz doesn’t believe that the number of deportations will be in the “millions” as Trump said, she does predict figures close to 600,000 people, emphasizing that the main message is discouraging migration to the U.S.
“The goal is to make them afraid of emigrating to the United States, as practically nothing else has worked,” she said.
On the other hand, Siller highlights that a mass deportation would also mean the U.S. seeing its workforce substantially diminished, while she predicts an economic crisis in Mexico due to the drop in remittances.
“The reduction in remittances that we receive means that the country would be affected in terms of consumption and economic growth,” commented Siller, concurring with De la Paz and Professor Mariana Rangel on their importance to the national economy.
“What’s more, all the deportees would be looking for work in Mexico, which would make the unemployment rate go up and even affect public safety,” she explained.
Additionally, Trump gave the green light to raids in places that were previously considered protected, such as churches, schools, and hospitals.
“The worst-case scenario would be one in which we receive deportees from the rest of Latin America and other places in addition to Mexican deportees, with severe public safety problems in cities in the north of Mexico, not just on the border,” added De la Paz.
Another of Trump’s controversial measures is that the children of immigrants born in the United States will no longer be treated as Americans, something that contravenes the country’s constitution.
This will require changing the constitution by an absolute majority of votes in Congress, followed by the ratification of three quarters of the states.
-Tariffs and trade measures
Siller mentioned the president’s threat to impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico, a strategy that she believes is “practically impossible.”
According to the professor, this is in part due to the logistical difficulty of collection and due to the generation of disruptions to supply chains for American production, besides being a strong blow to inflation.
“Trump is no fool; he’s a businessman, and he’s surely thinking how to use this as a lever to achieve other objectives. That’s because 80% of Mexican exports go to the U.S. It’s a monopoly power,” she explained.
According to the analyst, the United States aims to reduce the migration flow of undocumented people in tandem with the flow of illegal substances such as fentanyl to leverage trade with Mexico, which is the reason for the tariff threat.
“I believe that he’s going to impose tariffs on specific products, not 25%, but perhaps a tariff that could start at 5% and then gradually rise if his goals aren’t met,” she remarked.
In addition to the above, the analyst expects the U.S. to show positive economic growth of around 2.5% this year,while Mexico expects an economic slowdown with growth of between 0.8 and 1.2%.
According to credit rating agency Moody’s, applying tariffs to Mexico could cost the country one percentage point of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025.
On the other hand, he threatened to impose a 10% tariff on China for all goods imported from that country.
-Dealing with Europe
Nicolás Foucras, a research professor from Tec de Monterrey, identified a weakening of the European region, which is reflected in the outlook for geopolitical tensions such as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, where he does not foresee a resolution in future.
“I don’t believe that we’re going to see a peace treaty as such (...) probably a ceasefire but as a kind of cooling of tensions that could flare up at any time during the next four years or even afterwards,” he said.
“I think that the counterhegemonic bloc is in full expansion and has a big future. Europe is very weak (...) and I believe that it will be for some time as its main driver, Germany, is in very bad shape in all senses, including in terms of identity.”
Meanwhile, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Russia if there is no ceasefire in Ukraine, and even said that its president, Vladimir Putin, is destroying his country to wage this war.
- Latin America
In Latin America, Foucras shared that although this is an intrinsically different panorama to the European one, as its actors are extremely heterogeneous, being more familiar with uncertainty could play in its favor for the following years.
In the case of Mexico, the professor shared that he sees it as a “hub” which may continue to attract diverse economic and operational activities, especially those that have been displaced from other countries, although at an environmental cost.
-Energy sector
Siller highlighted the issue of a “national emergency” in the United States energy sector, with the implication that the North American country could now produce more oil.
“As it is also leaving the Paris Agreement, the price of oil will also tend to fall, which -in Mexico- could affect PEMEX (...) this will also affect public finance due to the reduction in the price of oil,” she said.
According to the expert, many industries are going to continue with their own energy transition, regardless of whether this is regulated or encouraged by Trump’s government.
On the other hand, Ballesteros highlights the president’s remarks regarding declaring a national energy emergencyunder a strategy that promotes techniques such as fracking.
“What Trump said was, ‘Drill, baby, drill.’ This is somewhat worrying, as we know that fracking can cause lots of problems, including water pollution and microearthquakes,” he said.
“Trump also wants the U.S. to be the world’s biggest producer of oil and gas. This is interesting because, like other policies, it’s wrapped up in certain discursive elements,” he explained.
The expert highlighted that although his predecessor Joe Biden had promised to reduce America’s dependence on oil, the reality is that the country reached record levels of extraction during his term, so this is not necessarily a “new” measure.
-Automotive sector
Both Siller and Professor José Antonio Ballesteros also highlighted the Energy Act, with Trump alluding to how he would eliminate the vast majority of economic incentives that exist for purchasing electric vehicles in the U.S.
“In this case, as in others, we are sold the idea that Trump is going to eliminate many things that had already been eliminated since Biden,” clarified Ballesteros.
“One example of this is the cars that could benefit from this type of incentive, which was for 7,500 dollars, and the types of cars it applied to was gradually reduced. There were 40 different cars in 2023, which was reduced to 20 (cars) in 2024,” he explained.
The researcher shared that this was due to clauses being added to stipulate that vehicles or their batteries had to be built in the United States.
According to Ballesteros, it is essential to analyze the reasons behind this decision, as he argued that despite its negative environmental connotations, they are not really such a “brusque” change for the U.S.
“Electric vehicles by themselves don’t solve anything, we’re simply moving from one technology to another. If the energy you use to recharge the batteries comes from oil, it’s still oil at the end of the day,” he said.
- Environment
For Ballesteros, the topics of science, technology, and environment are actually intertwined, so some of Trump’s orders and plans in his first days in office can be seen jointly.
The researcher highlights that exiting the Paris Agreement, although it is the topic that stands out the most in the area of international cooperation on the environment, is not necessarily an action that surprises analysts or the rest of the world.
“Eight years ago, Trump also left on day one, and what we saw was that in reality the other countries continued working on the agreements,” shared the professor.
“There are many economic interests (...) it’s definitely sad news that one of the countries that pollutes the most in the world decides unilaterally to not continue with this, but it’s not necessarily a trend for other actors,” he clarified.
- Technology
Trump signed an order for social network TikTok to operate for at least 75 days, despite the law that obliges it to go on sale or be banned from Sunday, January 19.
He even mentioned that he would support American companies buying at least 50% of Chinese company ByteDance, the owner of TikTok. Trump has even mentioned that businessman and ally Elon Musk should buy this social network.
Additionally, Trump announced “Stargate,” a project backed by SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle, with an investment of up to 500 billion dollars aimed at developing infrastructure for artificial intelligence in the United States.
This initiative reflects the administration’s intention to compete with China in this sector, focusing on promoting economic growth.
What positive elements can be seen?
Although the first day of Trump’s second term was marked by expectation and uncertainty over the orders to be signed, the specialists say that not everything should be seen in a negative light.
“At the end of the day, Mexico will benefit from a second Trump term, as it benefited from his first term,” remarked Siller.
“In fact, Mexico today is the main supplier of imports to the United States, with around 15% of total imports,” she added.
One of the positive points to highlight is the president’s role in tandem with his predecessor as key actors in the Gaza ceasefire.
On the other hand, Ballesteros mentioned how Trump’s political discourse (which is reflected in his way of creating policy) can be seen from several perspectives.
Although the academic says that his honesty and policies have generated a climate of fear and social tension, he highlights that the politician tends to express his intentions openly, something that could serve to minimize uncertainty.
“For good and bad, within the bounds of what an American president can be, he’s too honest (...) I believe that although Trump’s sincerity scares us, at least it gives us an indication of what he’s going to do,” he explained.
Ballesteros also concluded by highlighting the importance of understanding the existence of economic, political, and military dynamics that go above the president’s level, which are going to act as “natural brakes” during the following years.
Trends accompanying the new presidency
According to Foucras, alongside what Professor Mariana Rangel shared, one of the big megatrends that has already been cemented on the international stage is that of deglobalization, in tandem with a rise in nationalism.
He therefore predicts a trend in regionalization based on geographical proximity, alongside chiefly commercial connections.
“We’re in an age in which very few wish to yield in terms of sovereignty (...) they don’t want to transfer control over important decisions -such as security- to these supranational institutional structures,” he added.
On the other hand, the professor mentioned that short-term vision could join political trends with public opinion becoming less critical toward authoritarian regimes.
However, the researcher said that even with these trends, countries such as Mexico will have the opportunity to reconsider their approaches from perspectives that are less dependent on the U.S.
“Trump is going to act like a kind of father to Mexico and he’s going to force Mexico to think about or reconsider what it is (...) he’s going to force society to think about Mexico and less about the United States,” remarked the expert.
Can Trump’s executive orders proceed?
Although De la Paz had already mentioned that -with a Republican majority in Congress- the president can pass a large part of the laws he has been seeking since his first term, the professor highlights that:
1. Not everything on his agenda will pass without opposition, as the difference between representatives and senators from both parties is marginal.
2. He has signed executive orders that go against the Constitution. These must go through multiple voting processes, both in federal and state congresses, making it highly unlikely they will be approved.
By way of example, the academic mentions the idea of eliminating citizenship by birth, an order that goes against the 14th constitutional amendment.
“The 14th amendment says that everyone born in United States territories is a citizen of the country and the state, which -in a certain way- suggests that both the country and the state have obligations to that person.
“What is important to consider is that this amendment gives nationality to the African Americans who are descendants of former slaves. So, the first opposition you’re going to have there is that of all the African Americans,” she explained.
What’s more, she explained that modifying an amendment of this kind requires three quarters of federal Congress to approve it, in tandem with it being voted on in state congresses, with at least 35 of these voting to repeal the amendment.
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